The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a historic transformation from "quantity growth" to "quality improvement", exhibiting the following key trends:
1. Technological iteration accelerates, and efficiency continues to break through
Battery technology upgrade:
N-type cells (such as TOPCon) have become mainstream, with a capacity share exceeding 80% by 2025, and a theoretical efficiency ceiling of 28.7%
The integration of HJT and TOPCon technologies has resulted in the "TBC" technology, achieving a conversion efficiency breakthrough of 26.5%, with mass production imminent
The market share of XBC (back contact) technology has increased to 20%, featuring an aesthetically pleasing front-side gridless design and high efficiency
Component technology innovation:
Large-sized components (210mm/182mm) have become mainstream, with power exceeding 670W and cost per watt decreasing
Half-cut/laminated technology reduces internal losses and increases power generation by 3%-5%
The penetration rate of bifacial solar modules exceeds 50%, with an average increase in power output of 10%-15%
2. System integration and intelligence
Photovoltaic and energy storage integration: Energy storage systems become standard, with a storage ratio of 10%-20%, significantly improving system stability and economy
Intelligent operation and maintenance:
The AI diagnostic system monitors equipment status in real-time, provides early warnings for potential failures, and reduces operation and maintenance costs by over 30%
Drones replace manual inspection, improving efficiency and reducing safety risks
Virtual Power Plant (VPP): Distributed photovoltaic power generation participates in grid peak shaving through aggregation, with transaction volume exceeding 30 billion kWh in 2025, increasing asset value by over 20%
Digital management: The cloud platform enables remote monitoring and data analysis, optimizes system performance, and increases power generation by 5%-8%
3. Diversified application scenarios
Photovoltaic + Agriculture:
Agriculture-Photovoltaics Complementation: Cultivating shade-tolerant crops (such as mushrooms and traditional Chinese medicinal herbs) beneath photovoltaic panels, thereby increasing land utilization by 2-3 times
Photovoltaic greenhouse: Integrating planting and power generation, achieving dual benefits of "generating electricity above the greenhouse and planting below"
Photovoltaics + Fisheries:
Fishery-Photovoltaic Complementation: Photovoltaic panels on water provide shade for aquaculture, reduce water temperature, and increase aquaculture yield by 15%+
Floating photovoltaics: no land occupation, suitable for lakes and reservoirs, with an installed capacity exceeding 10GW by 2025
BIPV (Building-integrated photovoltaics):
For building material products such as photovoltaic roof tiles and curtain walls, the investment recovery period has been shortened to 6-8 years
It seamlessly integrates with the architecture, enhancing aesthetics while providing clean energy
Other innovative applications:
Photovoltaic power generation on highway slopes: Utilizing idle land while protecting the roadbed
Photovoltaics + hydrogen production: Utilizing low-cost electricity to produce green hydrogen, providing a solution for industrial decarbonization
4. Reconstruction of industrial structure
Vertical integration: Leading enterprises reduce costs and enhance competitiveness through the full industrial chain layout of "silicon materials - silicon wafers - batteries - modules - systems"
Specialized division of labor: Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) focus on niche areas (such as inverters, solar mounts, and energy storage), leveraging their technological advantages to obtain premium prices
Globalization layout:
Capacity transfer: Chinese enterprises establish factories in Southeast Asia and the Middle East to circumvent trade barriers
Localized services: Establishing overseas branches to provide after-sales and technical support, such as Xiamen Tuofence establishing Top Industries in Japan
Green manufacturing:
Low-carbon production: Carbon emissions throughout the entire lifecycle of photovoltaic modules are reduced to 300kg CO₂/kW, with a recycling rate exceeding 90%
ESG certification: More and more enterprises are obtaining certifications such as SBTi and SSI to meet the sustainable development requirements of the international market
5. Market size and prospects
Global installed capacity: expected to reach 698GW by 2025, with optimistic expectations exceeding 730GW, and an annual growth rate of nearly 20%
Chinese market: It is estimated that the newly installed capacity will exceed 200GW in 2025, and the cumulative installed capacity will surpass 1000GW
Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE): It has dropped below 0.2 yuan/kWh, fully entering the era of grid parity and surpassing traditional energy sources in competitiveness
Future Outlook: The photovoltaic industry will transition from being solely focused on power generation to providing comprehensive energy services. By leveraging "synergy between photovoltaic and energy storage, complementarity among multiple energy sources, and intelligent control", a new type of power system will be established, providing core support for the energy revolution and the "dual carbon" goals