I. Global PV Market: Explosive Growth, Record Highs

The global solar PV industry experienced unprecedented prosperity in 2023. According to a trends report released by the IEA Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme (IEA-PVPS), global newly installed PV capacity reached 456 GW in 2023, of which the Chinese market contributed 277 GW, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the global total. The IEA-PVPS Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2024 report shows that cumulative global PV capacity grew from 1.2 TW in 2022 to 1.6 TW in 2023. Data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) indicate that global newly installed renewable energy capacity in 2023 reached 473 GW, of which solar PV accounted for 345.5 GW, representing 73% of all renewable capacity added during the period.

From a regional perspective, the Chinese market led by a wide margin, followed by the European Union and the United States. Driven by growth in Germany (14.3 GW), Poland (6.0 GW), Italy (5.3 GW), and the Netherlands (4.2 GW), Europe installed about 61 GW for the year. After slow growth in 2022, the United States added 33.2 GW of new PV capacity in 2023. Brazil maintained market vitality, adding 11.9 GW, and its cumulative installed capacity entered the global top ten.

Notably, solar PV accounted for more than 75% of all new renewable energy capacity added in 2023, and its power generation accounted for nearly 60% of newly added renewable electricity. This data fully demonstrates that solar PV has become the core driver of the global energy transition. Globally, cumulative power generation from PV systems exceeded 2,135 TWh, equivalent to 8.3% of global electricity demand, while helping to avoid nearly 1 billion tons of CO2 emissions, representing about 2.5% of the energy sector's global emissions.

II. Chinese Market: Newly Installed Capacity Exceeds Expectations, PV Becomes Second Largest Power Source

The Chinese market performed particularly well in 2023. According to the 2023 National Renewable Energy Power Development Monitoring and Evaluation Report released by the National Energy Administration (NEA), by the end of 2023, the national cumulative installed capacity of renewable energy reached 1,516 GW, an increase of about 25% year-on-year, accounting for 52% of total power generation capacity. Among this, solar power capacity reached 609 GW, and wind power capacity reached 441 GW. Solar power has become the second largest power source after coal power.

In 2023, the newly installed capacity of renewable energy nationwide was 305 GW, of which grid-connected solar power added 216.02 GW, an increase of 148% year-on-year. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that the output of solar cells (photovoltaic cells) in 2023 reached 540 GW, an increase of 54.0% year-on-year. Solar power generation reached 583.3 TWh, accounting for 6.3% of total electricity generation. The national PV utilization rate was 98.0%, indicating generally good curtailment management.

In terms of installation structure, the Chinese PV market showed a pattern of centralized and distributed generation advancing in parallel. By the end of 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of distributed PV exceeded 250 GW, accounting for more than 40% of total PV capacity. This ratio indicates that distributed PV has become an important component of China's PV industry.

III. Policy Drivers: Top-Level Design Strengthened, Distributed PV Accelerates

In 2023, the central government continued to introduce multiple important policies, injecting strong momentum into the development of the PV industry.

In the field of distributed PV, the “county-wide promotion” policy continued to exert its force. In advancing the pilot work on county-wide rooftop distributed PV development, the NEA clearly emphasized requirements such as “five prohibitions” and organized special research and surveys on the pilot work in 2023, encouraging greater cooperation between central state-owned enterprises and private enterprises. The NEA also planned to research and issue policy documents to further promote the healthy development of residential PV, clarifying definitions, filing, construction, grid connection, consumption, operation and maintenance, supervision, and other aspects.

In March 2023, four departments – the NEA, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the National Rural Revitalization Administration – jointly issued the Notice on Organizing the Construction of Pilot Counties for Rural Energy Revolution, proposing to accelerate the rural energy revolution and explore the construction of regional integrated energy systems based mainly on PV and biomass, supplemented by energy storage and natural gas. In April 2023, the NEA further proposed implementing the “Thousand Townships, Ten Thousand Villages Sunshine Action” for PV, steadily advancing county-wide rooftop distributed PV pilots, and promoting clean energy use in rural areas.

In terms of industry standards, the NEA listed PV as a key focus area for the 2023 energy industry standard plan, covering large-scale wind-solar bases, offshore PV, residential PV, and other fields. In August 2023, four departments – the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the NEA, and the National Standardization Administration – jointly issued the Implementation Plan for the Leading Project of New Industry Standardization (2023–2035), proposing to develop standards for new high-efficiency cells and modules such as TOPCon, heterojunction, and perovskite. In addition, the green certificate system achieved a significant breakthrough: the on-grid electricity of distributed PV projects was allowed to issue tradable green certificates.

Regarding grid connection and consumption, the NEA issued the Notice on Pilot Work for Assessing Distributed PV Grid Integration Capacity and Enhancement Measures in June 2023, selecting some provinces to carry out pilot research and establishing a working mechanism for assessing, releasing, sampling, improving, and supervising distributed PV grid integration capacity. State Grid Corporation of China simultaneously advanced the establishment of a technical standard system for low-voltage distributed PV, built the country’s largest distributed PV cloud platform, and provided offline “one-stop” services.

IV. Large-Scale Ground-Mount Projects: Scaling Up Accelerates

In 2023, large-scale ground-mounted PV projects blossomed across the country, with many projects of hundreds of MW or even GW level achieving grid connection or starting construction.

On December 29, 2023, the 1,050 MW photovoltaic field area of the Guizhou Guanling Panjiang Million-kW PV Base Project (Section 3) achieved its first grid connection successfully, taking only 130 days – a record for construction duration for similar domestic units. The project has a total investment of 4.828 billion yuan, a planned capacity of 1,330 MW, and adopts a “PV + tourism + rural revitalization” model.

Also at the end of December 2023, the first phase of the first national-level 10-GW large-scale wind-solar base project – the Kubuqi Desert Ordos Central and Northern New Energy Base Project – was fully grid-connected in Dalat Banner. It is expected to provide about 2 billion kWh of clean electricity annually, saving about 600,000 tons of standard coal.

In February 2023, a key large-scale ground-mounted centralized PV project in Sichuan Province – the Huidong County 200 MW PV project in Liangshan Prefecture – commenced main works. With a total planned investment of about 1.06 billion yuan, the project adopts a “PV + animal husbandry” model. After completion, it will produce about 320 million kWh of clean electricity annually, saving about 104,000 tons of standard coal and reducing CO2 emissions by about 253,000 tons.

In December 2023, the world’s largest PV-plus-fishery power station – the Binzhou Zhanhua District 2 GW PV-plus-fishery project – achieved its full-capacity grid connection target 12 days ahead of schedule for Phase I. At the end of September 2023, the largest single wind-solar project in Asia, located in Nilka County, Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture, Xinjiang, started full construction, marking the rapid development of a 13 GW new energy base in Xinjiang.

The accelerated progress of these large-scale projects fully demonstrates China’s strong capabilities and efficient execution in large-scale PV power station construction.

V. Distributed PV: County-Wide Promotion Shows Results, Market Shifts South

In 2023, distributed PV continued its rapid growth trend. By the end of September 2023, cumulative installed distributed PV capacity nationwide reached 225 GW, accounting for 43% of total installed capacity.

Various county-wide pilot projects achieved positive progress. The Yantai Fushan District county-wide rooftop distributed PV pilot project began construction in April 2023, with an initial scale of 30 MW covering more than 1,600 rural households across 21 villages. It was expected to complete 117 MW of construction within the year. Tongcheng County in Hubei Province orderly advanced its rooftop distributed PV pilot project. By the end of July 2023, 2,708 households had installed PV facilities, with a total installed capacity of 92.2 MW and cumulative power generation of 9.75 million kWh.

At the same time, the residential PV market landscape changed significantly, showing an obvious “shift south”. Provinces and cities in southern China, such as Henan, Jiangsu, Anhui, and Zhejiang, rose rapidly, while growth slowed in traditional major markets such as Shandong and Hebei. This trend is mainly related to the saturation of distribution network capacity in some northern provinces and the huge development potential in the southern market. Market analysis suggests that this change indicates that distributed PV must move from extensive development to refined development.

VI. Technological Innovation: Multiple Breakthroughs in High-Efficiency Cell Technologies

In 2023, the PV technology sector achieved multiple major breakthroughs, providing strong impetus for continued cost reduction and efficiency improvement in the industry.

In the field of heterojunction cells, domestic companies made significant progress. Tongwei Solar achieved a technical breakthrough in power increase for heterojunction PV cell modules. Compared with conventional cell modules, HJT cell modules offer advantages such as better high-temperature tolerance and bifacial power generation capability. The heterojunction cells produced by Liangshan Solar, when assembled into modules, can achieve a starting power of 720 W, with great potential for further improvement through technical upgrades. JinkoSolar’s Jiuquan base launched a new model of HJT bifacial microcrystalline cells with a maximum conversion efficiency of 25.6%.

In the field of tandem cells, international and domestic R&D progress was remarkable. The KAUST Solar Center in Saudi Arabia announced a new record conversion efficiency of 33.7% for heterojunction-perovskite tandem cells, while domestic company LONGi Green Energy followed closely, announcing a maximum record efficiency of 33.5% for crystalline silicon-perovskite tandem cells.

On November 29, 2023, the world’s first commercial megawatt-scale perovskite ground-based PV project was successfully grid-connected in the Kubuqi Desert, Hangjin Banner, Ordos City, Inner Mongolia. The project is a supporting part of the Kubuqi 2 GW PV desert control project of the Western Base, with an installed capacity of 1 MW and a total of 11,200 perovskite PV modules. This marked an important step in the transition of perovskite PV technology from the laboratory to commercial applications.

In the field of agrivoltaics, agrivoltaic technology received widespread attention in 2023. Based on the co-use of land for PV and agricultural production, significant progress was made in both scientific research and industrial applications. Projects such as the Guanling project in Guizhou and the Huidong project in Sichuan adopted integrated models such as “PV + agriculture” and “PV + tourism”, achieving efficient composite use of land resources.

VII. Industry Chain and Costs: Price Declines Drive Installation Growth

In 2023, the PV industry chain underwent a profound price adjustment. Prices across the entire chain – polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules – fell comprehensively, with polysilicon prices dropping by 66.91% and module prices falling below 1.0 yuan/W. Overall PV industry chain prices declined, with module prices falling from about 1.8 yuan/W to just over 0.6 yuan/W, a drop of more than 60%.

Although the downstream price decline placed significant profit pressure on upstream manufacturing companies, it greatly promoted investment and construction of downstream PV power stations. The decline in module prices released cost margins for power stations, improved project returns, and boosted the industry’s new installed capacity and grid connections. In 2023, the average system cost of PV power stations was about 3.4 yuan/W, down 0.6 yuan/W from 2022.

On the manufacturing side, 2023 production volumes of polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules reached 1.43 million tons, 622 GW, 545 GW, and 499 GW respectively, with year-on-year growth of 66.9%, 67.5%, 64.9%, and 69.3% respectively. The output value of the domestic PV manufacturing industry (excluding inverters) exceeded 1.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.1% year-on-year. However, the rapid growth on the manufacturing side also brought overcapacity, and the industry faces pressures from consolidation and divergence. Inefficient and backward production capacity is gradually being eliminated.

In terms of exports, China’s exports of the three main PV products – silicon wafers, cells, and modules – reached 70.3 GW, 39.3 GW, and 211.7 GW respectively in 2023, with year-on-year growth of 93.6%, 65.5%, and 37.9% respectively. Europe remained the largest export market, accounting for about 42% of total export value, while Asia’s share rose from 36% to 40%, indicating more diversified markets.

In the capital market, the PV industry saw active financing in 2023. Chint New Energy completed a 2 billion yuan Series C financing round, with funds used for TOPCon cell module capacity expansion. Jiaojian Construction planned to acquire 70% of Boda New Energy’s equity, entering the PV industry chain. These capital activities indicate that the PV industry is attracting increasing capital attention and investment.