Industry Overview

In 2024, global renewable energy investment and installations continued to hit record highs. According to estimates, global renewable energy capacity reached approximately 4,450 GW, with new installed capacity of about 590 GW – accounting for 94% of total new power generation capacity worldwide. Global investment in renewable energy reached approximately $728 billion, an 8% year-on-year increase, becoming the main driver of the global clean energy transition. Meanwhile, China's PV industry continued its rapid growth: new PV installations in 2024 reached 277.57 GWAC, a year-on-year increase of 28%. Combined wind and solar power generation reached 1.83 trillion kWh, up 24.9% year-on-year. However, as new capacity flooded the market, all segments of the industrial chain fell into a "volume up, price down" dilemma. The industry is now seeking a new balance through capacity consolidation and technological upgrading.

Global PV Installations and Market Landscape

Globally, China's PV installations account for the overwhelming majority, while emerging markets are growing rapidly.

Global total: Final statistics from various institutions differ slightly, but all confirm that 2024 global PV installations set a new record. The IEA PVPS report indicates at least 554 GW and possibly up to 601.9 GW of new PV capacity added globally, bringing cumulative PV installations to over 2.2 TW. China contributed approximately 55-60% of the new installations. Other regions collectively added 244.6 GW, a significant year-on-year increase.

Major markets:

Europe added approximately 62.6 GW, ranking first among overseas markets.

The United States added about 47.1 GW, demonstrating strong absorption capacity.

India added around 31.9 GW, driven by policy support and project acceleration, showing particularly impressive year-on-year growth.

Future forecast: The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that annual global PV capacity in 2030 will range between 701 GW and 835 GW, with cumulative installed capacity reaching 5.8 to 6.5 TW.

China's solar industry continued to strengthen its international competitiveness. According to MIIT data, the "volume up, price down" trend persisted for major PV products in 2024: polysilicon and module prices fell 39.5% and 29.7% respectively year-on-year. China's PV module exports reached approximately 235.93 GW, up 13% year-on-year, with export value exceeding RMB 200 billion for four consecutive years. PV cell export volume grew by over 40%.

Technology Iteration and Efficiency Breakthroughs

2024 was a "year of efficiency breakthroughs" for solar cell technology, with N-type technologies dominating and perovskite and other cutting-edge technologies continuously breaking laboratory efficiency records.

N-type technology accelerates adoption: According to CPIA and other industry bodies, TOPCon cell annual capacity surged from approximately 110 GW in 2023 to about 350 GW – a staggering increase. Its market share jumped from 9.1% in 2022 to approximately 60%, becoming mainstream. Although heterojunction (HJT) and XBC technologies currently hold smaller shares, their conversion efficiencies exceeded 25.6% and 26.0% respectively, laying the foundation for future upgrades.

Laboratory efficiency records fall: LONGi's perovskite/silicon tandem cells set a new lab record of 34.6%, certified by world record authorities. JinkoSolar's SHJ cell efficiency exceeded 27.08%, while LONGi's HBC cell efficiency reached 27.3%, approaching the theoretical efficiency limit of crystalline silicon cells. TOPCon cell lab efficiency was raised to 26.5% using new technologies such as laser-enhanced contact optimization (LECO).

Transition to "technology competition": Encouraged by national policies promoting technological iteration and curbing inefficient capacity, the PV industry is shifting from "low-price internal competition" to "technology competition". The industry has increased impairment provisions for old capacity and is actively shifting capital expenditure toward advanced technologies like N-type. Advanced technology capacity is expected to further expand in 2025, while outdated capacity will accelerate its exit.

Sharp Price Volatility and Market Consolidation in the Supply Chain

In 2024, the main PV industrial chain (polysilicon, wafers, cells, modules) experienced an unprecedented price downturn, putting manufacturing profitability under severe pressure.

Price trends: Polysilicon annual output exceeded 2 million tons, with prices once falling to RMB 35,000-40,000/ton. By the end of November 2024, average polysilicon prices fell 39% year-on-year, while wafer average prices dropped 54% year-on-year. N-type module prices started at RMB 0.9-0.95/W at the beginning of 2024 and fell to around RMB 0.65-0.70/W by the end of the year. Due to supply-demand imbalances, all segments fell into industry-wide losses.

Diverging profitability: Against the backdrop of widespread losses, 26 Chinese PV companies achieved annual revenue exceeding RMB 10 billion. TBEA, JinkoSolar, and Tongwei all recorded revenues above RMB 90 billion. However, profitability diverged sharply among manufacturing companies: mainstream manufacturers saw significant revenue declines – JinkoSolar's revenue fell 22.08% year-on-year, LONGi 36.23%, Trina Solar 29.21%, and Tongwei 33.87%. In contrast, PV inverter, equipment, and auxiliary material manufacturers were the biggest winners. Sungrow's net profit attributable to shareholders rose 16.9% to RMB 11.036 billion, ranking first in the industry. Equipment makers such as Laplas, Jiejia Chuangneng, and Jing Sheng Ji Xie all achieved significant profit growth.

Supply-side consolidation signals: Faced with persistent losses, production halts, output cuts, and delayed expansions became the industry norm. Polysilicon, wafer, and cell segments all initiated maintenance and production reduction measures. Some projects under construction were shelved or canceled, officially marking the beginning of a capacity consolidation cycle.

Key Policy and Regulatory Highlights

In 2024, the PV policy framework continued to improve, from national-level strategic design to local implementation. Key areas included capacity optimization, market absorption, standards development, and legal safeguards.

Industrial technology and standards upgrade: In 2024, MIIT released the "Guidelines for the Construction of PV Industry Standard System (2024 Edition)", aiming to systematically build and improve the PV industry standard system, phase out backward capacity, and raise industry technical levels. In the second half of 2024, the NDRC and NEA held intensive meetings on PV industry supply-demand dynamics, clearly proposing to "accelerate capacity consolidation and guide orderly industrial development".

Renewable energy integration and market mechanisms: In May 2024, the NEA issued a notice on "Ensuring High-Quality Development of Renewable Energy by Improving Integration Capacity", proposing key measures such as accelerating the construction of supporting grid infrastructure for new energy and scientifically optimizing renewable energy utilization targets. In December 2024, the NEA further clarified measures to accelerate green certificate issuance and trading for distributed PV projects, promoting marketization and consumption of green power.

Distributed PV management: In October 2024, the NEA released the "Distributed PV Power Generation Development and Management Measures (Draft for Comments)", covering seven chapters: industry management, filing management, grid connection, and operation management.

Feed-in tariffs and local policies: In 2024, the Ministry of Finance allocated RMB 1.96 billion in subsidies for PV projects on local grids, prioritizing poverty alleviation and residential projects. Cixi City, Zhejiang Province introduced a one-time installation subsidy of RMB 0.1/W, while Dongyang City provided a generation subsidy of RMB 0.1/kWh. Shanwei City, Guangdong Province continued to implement tax incentives and exemptions from government-managed funds for distributed PV. According to Solarbe PV statistics, 70 local governments still have distributed PV subsidy policies.

Legal framework improvement: On November 8, 2024, the "Energy Law of the People's Republic of China" was passed, effective January 1, 2025. For the first time, it elevates solar and wind energy development to a legal mandate, explicitly stating "a combination of centralized and distributed approaches". Additionally, six government departments jointly issued a document requiring the implementation of renewable energy substitution actions, with consumption responsibilities assigned to key energy-using entities.

In the era of grid parity, the NDRC has clarified that feed-in tariffs for centralized PV power stations should be determined primarily through market competition. Yunnan Province provides benchmark price compensation (65% and 55% of monthly electricity volume, depending on commissioning period) for grid-connected PV projects in 2024. Gansu Province implements a combination of guaranteed consumption (at coal benchmark price) and market-based transactions.

International Trade and Tariff Barriers

In 2024, trade barriers from overseas markets, especially the United States, against Chinese PV products significantly escalated, profoundly affecting export patterns.

US initiates AD/CVD investigations: The US Department of Commerce formally launched anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations in May 2024 on PV products imported from four Southeast Asian countries: Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. Preliminary determinations announced at the end of November proposed anti-dumping duties of up to approximately 271% on solar products imported from these four countries.

Company-specific rates vary: Anti-dumping duty rates were high for Thailand (77.85%-154.68%) and Vietnam (54.46%). Countervailing duty rates ranged from 2.85% for JA Solar's Vietnam facility, 3.47% for JinkoSolar's Malaysian facility, and as low as 0.14% for Trina Solar's Thailand facility, while some companies operating in Vietnam faced the severest rate of up to 292.61%. According to analyses, once the AD/CVD measures are finalized, the cost advantage of exporting PV products from Southeast Asia to the US will be significantly eroded.

Faced with escalating trade barriers, including major Chinese manufacturers, many producers are actively adjusting their overseas capacity deployment strategies, seeking new export channels and trade compliance pathways.

Key Integrated Solar-Storage Projects

In 2024, domestic large-scale PV bases continued to accelerate, while the "PV + energy storage" integrated model made substantial progress both at home and abroad. Representative key projects include:

Domestic landmark large-scale PV projects:

SDIC Aksai Huidong Solar Thermal + PV Project (Gansu): Total capacity 750 MW. It is the largest tower-type solar thermal hybrid project among the country's first batch of "desert, gobi, barren land" projects, fully grid-connected at the end of November 2024.

Mengxi Lanhai PV Power Station (Inner Mongolia): China's largest single-capacity PV base in a coal subsidence area, expected to generate 5.7 billion kWh annually, reducing CO2 emissions by approximately 4.7 million tons per year.

Huadian Xizang Caicang Solar-Storage Power Station (Tibet): The world's highest-altitude PV project, with Phase II reaching 5,228 meters, once again setting a record for PV power station altitude in China.

"PV +" cross-sector integration projects:

Qinghai Tongren 400MW Solar-Pastoral-Storage Integrated Project: At an average altitude of over 3,400 meters, it innovatively adopts a "pastoral-solar + storage" model, equipped with a 120MWh energy storage system, achieving harmonious coexistence of clean energy and animal husbandry.

Highway service area distributed PV project: PV modules installed on vacant land and rooftops at service areas of the G30 Lianyungang-Khorgas Expressway, total capacity 5,600 kW, adopting a "solar-storage integration" concept and self-consumption with surplus feed-in mode.

Major overseas solar-storage cooperation projects:

Largest solar-storage integrated power station in Southeast Asia: The Terra solar-storage project signed by China Energy Engineering Group, located north of Manila, Philippines, planned to include 3.5GW of PV and 4.5GWh of energy storage. Phase I West Zone includes EPC for 1.4GW PV power station and 3.3GWh energy storage station, expected to be grid-connected by 2026.

Corporate Financial Performance Highlights

Against a backdrop of widespread losses in PV manufacturing, 2024 corporate performance showed significant divergence:

Revenue scale of industry leaders: TBEA, JinkoSolar, and Tongwei all exceeded RMB 90 billion in revenue; LONGi and Trina Solar exceeded RMB 80 billion. A total of 26 PV companies achieved revenue exceeding RMB 10 billion, with combined R&D expenditure reaching RMB 32.4 billion.

Profit divergence: Among 32 listed PV companies, total revenue reached RMB 914.78 billion. Twenty-one companies were profitable, with Sungrow ranking first with net profit of RMB 11.036 billion, TBEA second at RMB 4.135 billion, and Deye third at RMB 2.952 billion. Manufacturing companies faced severe losses – JinkoSolar's revenue fell 22.08% YoY, LONGi 36.23%, Trina Solar 29.21%, and Tongwei 33.87%. Technology and equipment manufacturers performed relatively solidly: Laplas achieved net profit of RMB 729 million in its first year post-IPO, while Jiejia Chuangneng and Jing Sheng Ji Xie both exceeded RMB 2 billion in net profit.