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Solar Energy Industry Undergoes Structural Adjustment, China's Technological Breakthroughs Lead Global Transformation
2026-03-25
Report (Comprehensive Report by Reporters) Since 2026, the global solar energy (photovoltaic) industry has entered a period of phased adjustment, with the expected first negative growth in new installed capacity in 20 years. However, technological innovation continues to make breakthroughs and the market structure is constantly optimized. China's achievements in high-efficiency photovoltaic technology and new battery research and development continue to lead the world, injecting new momentum into the global energy transition.
According to the "2025-2026 China Photovoltaic Industry Development Roadmap" released by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association in February, the global new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2026 is expected to be 500 to 667 GW, a slight decline from 580 GW in 2025; China's new photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to be 180 to 240 GW, a significant drop from 315.07 GW in 2025. BloombergNEF further predicts that global new solar energy installed capacity will see its first annual decline since records began in 2000, mainly affected by policy adjustments in major markets such as China and the United States, as well as saturation in some mature markets.
Behind the industry adjustment is the profound restructuring of the market structure and the transformation of the development model. Wang Bohua, consultant of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, explained that the new distributed photovoltaic management measures and the market-oriented reform of on-grid electricity prices launched in China in 2026 have been in place for a short time, leading to a wait-and-see attitude in the market and a rational adjustment in new installed capacity. However, with the gradual manifestation of the effects of policies such as new energy integration and direct green power connection, the global and China's new photovoltaic installed capacity will return to an upward path starting from 2027, with a stable growth rate and steady increment. It is worth noting that in 2026, the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power in China is expected to account for about half of the total installed power generation capacity, and the installed solar power capacity will exceed the installed coal-fired power capacity for the first time, marking a landmark turning point in the power structure.
In terms of market structure, distributed photovoltaic has become the new mainstream of industry development. Starting from 2026, the proportion of distributed photovoltaic in China is expected to exceed 65%. The new version of the "Distributed Photovoltaic Grid-Connection Management Measures" issued by the National Energy Administration will be implemented on June 1, fully canceling the rigid limit of 80% reverse load rate of transformer capacity and adopting flexible three-color zoning management, which will increase the accessible capacity of distributed photovoltaic nationwide by about 40%. At the same time, an AI one-stop declaration platform has been launched, shortening the approval time limit to 3 working days, an efficiency increase of nearly 10 times. Application scenarios such as rural household use, industrial and commercial rooftops, and photovoltaic carports have exploded. In the meantime, the integration of wind, solar and energy storage has become the standard configuration for new photovoltaic projects. Shagehuang large-scale base projects need to be equipped with wind power and energy storage, with an energy storage configuration ratio of not less than 15%/4 hours, effectively solving the intermittent and volatile problems of photovoltaic power generation and improving the stability of green power.
The upgrading of industry governance and technological iteration are carried out in parallel, promoting the transformation of the solar energy industry from "scale expansion" to "high-quality development". 2026 has been clearly designated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology as the year of tackling anti-involution in the photovoltaic industry. The mandatory energy efficiency standard for photovoltaic modules has been officially implemented since March 1, eliminating more than 60% of backward small and medium-sized production capacity and significantly increasing the industry's operating rate. At the same time, the warranty period for modules has been uniformly extended to 30 years, and new projects are required to submit carbon footprint reports and retirement recycling commitment letters. The concentration of the industrial chain continues to improve, with CR5 in the silicon material and module links exceeding 90% and 80% respectively, and the industry is shifting from "price war" to "value war".
China's breakthroughs in solar energy technology continue to set world records, becoming the core driving force for the global industrial transformation. On March 25, the National Natural Science Foundation of China released the "Top 10 Scientific Advances in China" for 2025. The "high-efficiency and stable flexible perovskite-silicon tandem solar cell technology" jointly developed by Longi Green Energy and Soochow University was successfully selected. The ultra-thin flexible tandem cells prepared by this technology have a laboratory efficiency of 33.4% and a full-silicon wafer size efficiency of 29.8%, both setting world records. Moreover, they can maintain 97% of their initial performance after 43,000 bends, unlocking cutting-edge application scenarios such as wearable devices and curved building photovoltaic.
In the field of new solar cell materials, Chinese research teams have also achieved remarkable results. The team from the Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has increased the photoelectric conversion efficiency of copper-zinc-tin-sulfur-selenium (CZTSSe) solar cells to 16.6%, setting a world record for the 10th time; the team from the Qingdao Institute of Bioenergy and Bioprocess Technology of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has also achieved a conversion efficiency of 15.45% for this type of cell, with an internationally authoritative certified efficiency of 15.04%. Composed of common elements, CZTSSe materials have the advantages of abundant resources, low cost and environmental protection. At present, they have crossed the key threshold of industrialization and are expected to be widely used in portable energy systems, space energy platforms and other scenarios in the future.
In the international market, the European market remains stable, India's installed capacity is expected to grow rapidly, and the deployment of photovoltaic in emerging markets such as the Middle East, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa is accelerating. The G20 Summit Declaration also provides positive news for the development of new energy. Insiders said that although the solar energy industry is facing phased adjustments in 2026, technological innovation and scenario expansion will become the core growth points. With its comprehensive advantages in manufacturing, technology and system integration, China will continue to lead the high-quality development of the global solar energy industry and provide important support for achieving the "dual carbon" goals.
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