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Global Solar Energy Systems Industry New Dynamics: Policy Iteration, Technological Breakthroughs and Market Restructuring Go Hand in Hand
2026-03-04
Solar Energy Systems Usher in a Turning Point of High-Quality Development, Distributed and High-Efficiency Technologies Become Core Engines
In 2026, China's photovoltaic industry officially bid farewell to the "barbaric growth" stage of competing for scale and price, and entered a high-quality development cycle of competing for technology, value and sustainability. According to the "2025-2026 China Photovoltaic Industry Development Roadmap" released by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the new domestic photovoltaic installed capacity in 2026 is expected to be 180-240GW, which is a callback from 315GW in 2025, but it is a rational adjustment of the industry, and it will return to the upward channel after 2027.
In terms of market structure, distributed solar energy systems have become the absolute mainstream, accounting for more than 65% of the total. The new version of the "Distributed Photovoltaic Grid-Connection Management Measures" issued by the National Energy Administration in February 2026 clearly states that starting from June 1, the rigid limit of 80% reverse load rate of transformer capacity will be fully abolished, and a flexible green, yellow and red zonal management will be adopted instead. This will increase the accessible capacity of distributed photovoltaic in the country by about 40%, and more than 70% of the originally restricted areas will be converted into accessible areas. At the same time, the AI one-stop declaration platform was launched, compressing the approval time limit to 3 working days, an efficiency increase of nearly 10 times, promoting the full explosion of scenarios such as rural household photovoltaic, industrial and commercial rooftop photovoltaic, and photovoltaic carports, and upgrading distributed solar energy systems from "supplementary energy" to "main energy".
Industry governance and technological iteration are advancing hand in hand to promote the quality upgrading of solar energy systems. 2026 has been clearly designated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology as the year of tackling anti-involution in the photovoltaic industry. Starting from March 1, the mandatory energy efficiency standard for photovoltaic modules will be officially implemented, specifying that the conversion efficiency of PERC modules shall not be less than 24.2% and that of TOPCon modules shall not be less than 25%. Products that do not meet the standards are completely prohibited from production and sales, directly eliminating more than 60% of backward small and medium-sized production capacity. In terms of technical routes, N-type high-efficiency technology has fully dominated the market. The laboratory efficiency of BC batteries has reached 27.8%, and the mass production efficiency is expected to exceed 28.7%. The market share of BC modules will increase from 15% in 2025 to more than 30% in 2026. Cutting-edge technologies such as perovskite tandem are accelerating pilot-scale production, injecting new momentum into the efficiency improvement of solar energy systems.
Global Policy Adjustments: Many Countries Optimize Subsidy Mechanisms to Promote Market-Oriented Transformation of Solar Energy Systems
In 2026, major global economies have adjusted their policies related to solar energy systems, gradually shifting from subsidy-driven to market-oriented competition, while focusing on supporting small-scale distributed systems and technological innovation. Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry recently announced the 2026 fiscal year photovoltaic power generation support policy, clarifying that it will continue to support small and medium-sized and rooftop photovoltaic through the Feed-in Tariff (FIT) subsidy, and announced that the competitive bidding subsidy mechanism for large-scale photovoltaic projects will be officially withdrawn after 2026. Among them, the subsidized electricity price for household solar energy systems below 10kW is 24 yen per kWh in the first 4 years, and drops to 8.3 yen per kWh from the 5th to the 10th year. Industrial and commercial rooftop projects also enjoy phased subsidies, promoting the popularization of distributed solar energy systems.
Germany, on the other hand, proposed in the "2026 Climate Protection Plan" that starting from 2027, it will cancel the fixed feed-in tariff subsidy for all distributed photovoltaic power stations below 25kW, forcing the solar energy systems industry to accelerate the market-oriented process. Although this policy has been widely questioned by the industry and may lead to fluctuations in installed capacity in the short term, in the long run, it will promote the upgrading of technologies such as high-efficiency modules and intelligent inverters, and drive the development of diversified scenarios such as Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV), agricultural photovoltaic, and floating photovoltaic, which is in line with Germany's goal of reaching a cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity of 215GW by 2030.
Technological Breakthrough: Space Flexible Solar Cells Come Out, Unlocking Full-Scenario Application Potential
Recently, among the "Top 10 Scientific Advances in China" in 2025 released by the National Natural Science Foundation of China, "Interface Regulation New Method for Creating High-Performance Flexible Tandem Solar Cells for Space Applications" was selected, marking a major breakthrough in solar energy systems technology towards lightweight and high reliability. This achievement, developed by a team from Soochow University in conjunction with Longi Green Energy, has systematically solved the key problems of efficiency and stability of flexible tandem cells, laying the foundation for the multi-scenario application of solar energy systems.
This flexible perovskite/crystalline silicon tandem solar cell adopts a "loose-tight" double-layer tin oxide buffer structure and a new indium cerium oxide thin film technology. It not only solves the interface delamination problem caused by bending and thermal expansion and contraction of different material layers, but also improves the charge transfer efficiency. It achieves a photoelectric conversion efficiency of 33.6% on small-area devices and 29.8% on full-silicon wafer-sized devices, both setting new world records. More notably, the battery still maintains 97% of its initial efficiency after 43,000 bends without obvious attenuation. It can not only be applied to high-end scenarios such as aerospace and wearable electronic devices, but also provide new solutions for civil scenarios such as vehicle-mounted photovoltaic and Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV), further expanding the application boundary of solar energy systems.
Industry Outlook: Technological Premium Becomes Prominent, Global Coordinated Development Is the Trend
At present, the differentiation trend of the solar energy systems industry continues to intensify, and the slowdown in installed capacity growth is forcing the industry to eliminate the inferior and retain the superior. China's new photovoltaic installed capacity in January-February was 32.48GW, a year-on-year decrease of 17.71%, but leading enterprises have further consolidated their market position with technological advantages. The proportion of N-type high-efficiency modules in the component bidding of central enterprises generally exceeds 70%, and the technical access threshold has been greatly raised. With the expected component average price dropping to 0.67 yuan/W, technologies such as 1500V/1600V high-voltage systems and tracking brackets are fully popularized, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of solar energy systems continues to decrease, and it has become one of the most economical energy forms in the world.
In the future, the solar energy systems industry will present three major trends: first, the technical route will move towards N-type high efficiency and diversification, with BC and perovskite technologies becoming the mainstream direction; second, the application scenarios will extend to all fields, with wind-solar-storage integration becoming the standard configuration for new projects, and distributed and centralized systems developing in coordination; third, the global policy coordination will be strengthened, and countries will deepen cooperation in technological R&D, industrial chain layout, carbon footprint management, etc., to promote the full-life-cycle green development of solar energy systems. For ordinary residents, industrial and commercial enterprises and investors, grasping the high-prosperity tracks such as high-efficiency technology, energy storage supporting facilities and photovoltaic recycling will be the key to seizing industry opportunities.
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