Photovoltaic Power Generation System Industry In-Depth Review: Policy Drivers, Market Explosion, and Technological Transformation
2022-09-11
In 2022, the global energy landscape underwent profound changes, and the photovoltaic power generation industry experienced unprecedented high growth. Driven by China's "dual carbon" goals, the country's PV industry delivered outstanding results across policy, manufacturing, and application segments. This article systematically reviews the policy environment, market performance, technological evolution, and industry chain landscape of the PV power generation system industry in 2022, providing a comprehensive reference for industry professionals.
I. Policy Environment: Top-Level Design Continuously Improved, Grid Parity Fully Implemented
2022 was a critical year for China's PV industry to fully enter a new stage of subsidy‑free grid parity development. The National Energy Administration (NEA) made it clear that China's PV power generation has entered a new phase of subsidy‑free development. The state no longer implements capacity management but instead establishes a renewable energy power consumption responsibility weight guidance mechanism. Provinces determine the annual grid‑connection scale of new PV projects based on their local non‑hydro renewable energy power consumption responsibility weights and the reasonable utilization rate of new energy.
At the top‑level design level, the "14th Five‑Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development", jointly issued by nine departments including the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the NEA, clearly defined key tasks such as comprehensively promoting distributed PV development, implementing the "Thousand Villages, Ten Thousand Homes Solar Action", and advancing the "PV +" comprehensive utilization action. In May of the same year, the General Office of the State Council forwarded the "Implementation Plan for Promoting High‑Quality Development of New Energy in the New Era", proposing 21 policy measures in seven areas, including innovative development and utilization models and building a new power system, to address the difficult and blocking points in new energy development.
On November 30, 2022, the NEA officially issued the "Measures for the Development and Construction Management of PV Power Stations" (Guo Neng Fa Xin Neng Gui [2022] No. 104), comprehensively regulating industry management, annual development and construction plans, project construction management, grid access management, and operation monitoring of centralized PV power stations. The measures specify that the dispatched offices of the NEA are responsible for supervision of the implementation of national plans and policies, qualification licensing, fair grid access, and power consumption of PV power stations within their respective jurisdictions.
Regarding large-scale wind and solar bases, the two authorities issued a document to improve the institutional mechanisms and policies for green and low‑carbon energy transition, encouraging the application of building‑integrated PV (BIPV) and supporting the construction of renewable energy building energy supply systems using solar energy. By the end of October, the first batch of large-scale wind and PV bases had all started construction, the second batch of projects had begun construction one after another, and the review of the third batch of projects was being advanced.
In the field of BIPV, the "General Code for Building Energy Conservation and Renewable Energy Utilization" issued by the Ministry of Housing and Urban‑Rural Development came into mandatory effect on April 1, requiring that new buildings be equipped with solar energy systems. The design of solar building integration application systems should be synchronized with the building design, making PV a "mandatory requirement" for new buildings. At the same time, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and four other departments jointly launched the third batch of intelligent PV pilot demonstrations, with PV‑storage integration listed as a priority direction, aiming to improve the stability, grid‑friendliness, and consumption capacity of PV power generation.
II. Market Performance: Record‑High Installed Capacity, China Leading Global Growth
(1) Global PV Installed Capacity Market
In 2022, the global PV industry showed a growth pattern across multiple regions. According to data from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA), global newly added PV installed capacity reached 230 GW in 2022, a year‑on‑year increase of 35.30%. By the end of 2022, global cumulative PV installed capacity reached 1,156 GW. According to the "Trends in Photovoltaic Applications 2023" released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global cumulative solar PV capacity exceeded 1,183 GW by the end of 2022, of which 65% had been added in the previous five years.
Data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) show that developers installed a total of 295 GW of renewable energy worldwide in 2022, increasing global cumulative installed capacity by 9.6%. This record growth should be primarily attributed to new PV systems. China accounted for nearly half of the world's newly added renewable energy capacity in 2022, with 141 GW. North America and Europe added 57.3 GW and 29.1 GW, respectively.
By country, China remained the largest installed capacity market, with unprecedented new PV installed capacity of 105.5 GW in 2022, with relatively balanced contributions from centralized and distributed systems. By the end of the year, China's total installed capacity reached 414 GW, accounting for 45% of the global total. The United States was the second‑largest PV market, with a cumulative installed capacity of 141.6 GW. India ranked third with 18.1 GW of new installations, reaching a cumulative total of 79.1 GW. Brazil installed 9.9 GW of solar capacity in 2022, Spain added 8.5 GW, and Germany added 7.2 GW.
(2) China PV Market Performance
In 2022, China's PV industry delivered impressive results. According to CPIA data, the output value of China's PV manufacturing segment (excluding inverters) exceeded RMB 1.4 trillion, a year‑on‑year increase of more than 95%. Newly installed capacity reached 87.41 GW, up 59.3% year‑on‑year, setting another record high. The total export value of PV products (wafers, cells, modules) was approximately US$51.25 billion, an increase of 80.3% year‑on‑year.
According to the MIIT's report on the operation of China's PV manufacturing industry in 2022, the output of all segments of the PV industry chain reached record highs. Polysilicon output was 827,000 tons, up 63.4% year‑on‑year; wafer output was 357 GW, up 57.5%; cell output was 318 GW, up 60.7%; and module output was 288.7 GW, up 58.8%. China's PV module output, polysilicon output, newly added PV installed capacity, and cumulative PV installed capacity have ranked first globally for many consecutive years.
In terms of exports, the total export value of PV products exceeded US$50 billion for the first time, with a year‑on‑year increase of over 80%, becoming a major highlight of China's foreign trade exports. Among them, the European market saw the largest increase, up 114.9% year‑on‑year, accounting for 46% of total exports.
III. Distributed PV: Newly Added Capacity Surpasses Centralized for First Time, Forming a "Three‑Part" Pattern
2022 was a milestone year for the development of distributed PV in China. Data from the NEA show that the annual newly added distributed PV capacity exceeded 50 GW for the first time, reaching 51.11 GW, a year‑on‑year increase of 75%, accounting for 60% of all newly added PV capacity, becoming the primary driver of new PV installations. It formed a new pattern of "three parts" – centralized power stations, commercial & industrial (C&I) distributed, and residential PV.
By type, C&I distributed PV replaced residential PV as the fastest‑growing segment. From January to September 2022, newly added C&I distributed PV capacity was 18.74 GW, a year‑on‑year increase of 296%, accounting for 53% of distributed capacity. Newly added residential PV capacity was 16.95 GW, up 42% year‑on‑year. For the full year, newly added residential PV capacity reached 25.25 GW, up 16.9% year‑on‑year, accounting for 29% of the year's new PV capacity.
Regionally, distributed PV installations remained concentrated in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Guangdong provinces. From January to September 2022, these six provinces accounted for 75% of the country's new distributed PV installations. Among them, coastal economic provinces such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong focused on C&I PV, while agricultural provinces such as Shandong, Henan, and Hebei focused on residential PV. The "county‑wide promotion" policy had a profound impact on the domestic distributed PV market in 2022, encouraging more enterprises and capital to enter the distributed PV sector.
IV. Industry Chain Landscape: Polysilicon Price Turbulence, Mass Production Year for N‑Type Technology
(1) Sharp Fluctuations in Polysilicon Prices
In 2022, the PV industry chain experienced unprecedented sharp price fluctuations. Starting from the beginning of the year, polysilicon prices continued to climb, from RMB 230/kg to a peak of around RMB 330/kg, an increase of more than 40%, hitting a near‑decade high. According to Infolink data, the average spot price of domestic polysilicon in 2022 was RMB 271,000/ton, up about 46% year‑on‑year, a five‑year high.
The phenomenon of "local overheating" in the industry chain attracted regulatory attention. In mid‑August, three departments – the MIIT, the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the NEA – jointly issued a notice pointing out that the PV industry had experienced a phase of supply‑demand mismatch and severe price volatility in some segments. In early October, they held talks with some major polysilicon enterprises and industry associations, intending to promote coordinated development of the supply chain.
At the end of the third quarter, the downstream wafer segment was the first to initiate a "price war". The price cuts in wafers led to a loosening of upstream polysilicon prices. In the last month of 2022, polysilicon prices fell from a peak of RMB 330/kg to a low of about RMB 180/kg, nearly halving in price. As of December 21, 2022, the mainstream price of weekly PV polysilicon was RMB 255/kg, down 7.9% from the previous week, a drop of RMB 48 from the peak of RMB 303.
Driven by high prices throughout the year and increased sales volume, leading polysilicon companies delivered outstanding financial results. Tongwei Co., Ltd. estimated a net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 25.2‑27.2 billion for 2022, an increase of 207%‑231% year‑on‑year; Daqo New Energy's net profit attributable to parent company was RMB 19.12 billion, up 234.05%; GCL Technology's profit was not less than RMB 15.5 billion; all four polysilicon giants achieved more than double net profit growth.
(2) Technological Progress and Mass Production Year for N‑Type
2022 is known as the mass production year for N‑type technology. As technology levels continued to improve, many manufacturers planned or put into production large‑scale TOPCon and heterojunction (HJT) cell production lines in 2022, with the maximum module power further increasing. LONGi Green Energy's independently developed silicon heterojunction cell achieved a conversion efficiency of 26.81%, setting a new world record for silicon‑based solar cell efficiency.
In the field of perovskite cell technology, 2022 saw breakthrough progress. The team of Tan Hairen from Nanjing University achieved, for the first time internationally, the fabrication of large‑area all‑perovskite tandem PV modules. Certified by authoritative testing, the steady‑state output efficiency of the large‑area module reached 21.7%, setting a new world record for perovskite PV modules. The relevant results were published in the journal Science. In addition, Tan Hairen's team set a world record of 26.4% photoelectric conversion efficiency for all‑perovskite tandem cells, surpassing the highest certified efficiency of single‑junction perovskite cells for the first time. According to CPIA data, in 2022, Chinese enterprises and research institutions set new efficiency records for crystalline silicon cells 14 times.
In the wafer segment, the trend toward thinning was evident. At the beginning of the year, the mainstream thickness of p‑type wafers was 160‑165 μm, and by the end of the year it had been reduced to 150 μm. The market for n‑type wafers was mainly 130 μm, and HJT technology was already experimenting with 100 μm wafers. Wafer thinning was driven not only by cost pressures from rising polysilicon prices but also by the guarantee of good yield rates as technology improved.
(3) PV Inverter Market
According to Wood Mackenzie research data, the global PV system market demand in 2022 was 201 GW, and PV inverter demand grew by 48% year‑on‑year. Total global PV inverter shipments reached 333 GW in 2022, with industry shipments growing again as supply chain challenges such as chip shortages eased. The top ten global solar inverter suppliers held an 86% market share.
Huawei and Sungrow maintained their dominance in the inverter market, with a combined share of over 50% in 2022. Their shipments increased by 83% and 56%, respectively, compared to 2021. Ginlong, Growatt, and GoodWe also ranked among the top five suppliers. By region, the Asia‑Pacific region accounted for 50% of the global market, with China leading the regional inverter market; Europe accounted for 28% of the global market, with shipments up 82% year‑on‑year; and the United States accounted for 13% of the global market.
V. PV Power Generation Costs: Continuous Decline, Improved Competitiveness
According to the "Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2022" report released by IRENA, despite continued cost inflation for raw materials and equipment in 2022, the costs of newly commissioned renewable energy worldwide declined. The weighted average levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for utility‑scale solar PV fell 3% to US$0.049/kWh, and onshore wind fell 5%. China was the main driver of declining solar PV and onshore wind costs globally in 2022.
From a historical trend perspective, the cost reduction for solar PV has been dramatic. In 2010, the LCOE of solar PV was 710% higher than that of the cheapest fossil fuel power generation, while in 2022 it was only 29% higher. In 2022, about 86% (187 GW) of all newly commissioned renewable energy facilities had costs lower than fossil fuel power generation. Renewable energy capacity added since 2000 reduced the power sector's fuel costs by at least US$520 billion in 2022.
VI. Building‑Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV): A Trillion‑RMB Blue Ocean Opens
In 2022, driven by a wave of policy releases, the BIPV market accelerated its heating up. Leading PV companies such as LONGi, JinkoSolar, Trina Solar, and Risen Energy heavily concentrated in the
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